Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification

This paper looks at the determinants of country and industry specific factors in international portfolio returns using a sample of forty eight countries and thirty nine industries over the last three decades. Country factors have remained relatively stable over the sample period while industry factors have significantly increased during the last decade and dropped again since 2000. The importance of industry and country factors is correlated with measures of economic and financial international integration and development. We find that financial market globalization is the main driving force behind the changes in relative magnitude of the different shocks. Country factors are smaller for countries integrated in world financial markets and have declined as the degree of financial integration and the number of countries pursuing financial liberalization has increased. Higher international financial integration within an industry increases the importance of industry factors in explaining returns. Economic integration of production also helps in explaining returns. Countries with a more specialized production activity have higher country shocks.     

A study of earnings-management motives in the Anglo-American and Euro-Continental accounting models: The Canadian and French cases

The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors that potentially influence earnings-management policy with reference to the Anglo-American and Euro-Continental accounting models. Canada and France, respectively, belong to those different socio-economic environments. Earnings-management practices detected in those countries are expected to be affected by specific socio-economic features of the Anglo-American and the Euro-Continental environments. We explain earnings-management practices by incentives suggested in the literature to reveal which motives are prominent within each environment.We tested our earnings-management motives (EMM) model using appropriate panel-estimation techniques over 1674 Canadian and 1470 French firm-year observations. Our results provide evidence that incentives for earnings management for French firms are specifically linked to contractual debt costs and effective tax rate. However, Canadian firms show specific incentives matched with a dynamic capital market. Issuing equity is a strong motive for earnings management in Canadian firms.     

连续进化金融模型与全局渐进化稳定策略

本文运用达尔文生物进化论思想研究连续交易金融市场选择的动态变化及一般均衡规律。本文发现并证明了:金融资产“赢利”的充要条件是该资产相对股息大于相对股价;投资比例等于股息分发比例的简单混合策略是全局渐近进化稳定策略;在均衡条件下,对应的金融资产价格等于该资产股息占总股息的比例的数学期望;市场变异或金融创新是有效市场形成的动力;全局渐近进化稳定策略业绩可能在某些时候不是最好的,但只要其初始财富大于零,最终将控制市场上的所有财富,而简单混合策略,可能在某个时候业绩优良,然而,在市场存在全局渐近进化稳定策略的条件下,只要其初始财富份额小于1,最终控制的财富趋向于零,从而被市场所淘汰。     

基于融资视角的中国金融结构与金融稳定研究

通过对中国金融运行的实证检验和分析发现,以银行中介和金融市场划分的两种金融结构各有优势,只要能够满足金融资源高效配置的金融结构都符合经济发展的需要,不必对金融结构进行人为的割裂。中国的金融体系存在着转化投资的高效率和资源配置的低效率这样一对突出矛盾,其主要原因是金融资源的配置失当,这是当前中国金融稳定的潜在威胁,解决问题的关键是要对金融体系进行市场化改革并完善基础设施建设。     

国际收支与金融市场效率问题的探讨

以“逆差 顺差”为特点的美国国际收支结构是很难长期持续的,美国经常项目很可能会经历趋向平衡的调整过程。由于中美两国国际收支结构存在较强的互补性,美国国际收支结构的调整对目前中国国际收支结构提出了严峻挑战。金融市场的行政分割、金融资源结构及流向的不合理是影响中国国际收支结构失衡的重要因素,因此中国应该完善和发展金融市场,积极主动地调整目前失衡的国际收支结构以应对美国国际收支结构调整可能给中国经济发展带来的不利影响。     

基于金融安全的资本流动：理论解读与中国实证

基于IS-LM-BP模型阐述了资本流动—经济非均衡的生成机制,揭示了资本流入规模、资本流入结构、外汇储备及经常项目是影响一国资本流动金融安全的主要因素。通过建立资本流动影响金融安全的测算体系,对1996～2005年我国资本流动进行了实证分析,结果表明：(1)中国资本流动状况总体较好,状态界定为安全；(2)资本流入规模正常,但期限结构不够合理；(3)现阶段我国资本流动的安全运行有保障。     

Alternatives to blanket guarantees for containing a systemic crisis

This paper seeks to explain how policy actions undertaken at the outset of recent crises—particularly the issuance of extensive liquidity support and government guarantees—absorb off-budget fiscal resources and inappropriately constrain officials’ subsequent options for restructuring their country’s troubled financial and corporate sectors. Empirical evidence supports the commonsense view that the damage a crisis works on a country’s financial sector and on its real economy is lessened by taking market-mimicking actions that promptly estimate and allocate losses during the early stages of a crisis. The most important steps are to plan to call a timeout to separate hopelessly insolvent institutions from potentially viable ones and to provide haircuts, guarantees, and liquidity support in ways that protect taxpayers and avoid subsidizing insolvent institutions’ longshot gambles for resurrection.     

Measuring financial risks with copulas

This paper is concerned with the statistical modeling of the dependence structure of multivariate financial data using the concept of copulas. We select some special copulas and identify the type of dependency captured by each one. We fit copulas to daily returns and simulate from the fitted models. We compare the effect of the choice of copula on risk measures and assess the variability of one-step-ahead predictions of portfolio losses. We analyze extreme scenarios and fit extreme value copulas to the block maxima and minima from daily returns. The stress scenarios constructed are compared to those obtained using models from the extreme value theory. We illustrate the usefulness of the copula approach using two stock market indexes.     

A multilateral approach to examining the comovements among major world equity markets

This study investigates the comovement in stock indices among major developed markets, where Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices are employed for the purposes of the study. We employ a model that accommodates multilateral international impacts on equity index movements. The empirical results reveal the existence of significant international transmission effects among these major world markets, both in terms of returns and volatility, and mostly in a positive direction. The U.S. market, as expected, is the leading market in the sense that it has the most pervasive and significant impact on all markets across continents. However, the U.S. market exhibits a different relationship with European markets from that with Asia-Pacific markets. The evidence also suggests that strong regional transmission effects exist. A further investigation using the extended model reveals that the linkages between U.S. and European markets are driven by positive global common forces and by negative international competitive effects. On the other hand, the U.S. and Asian markets are linked through positive global common forces and positive international contagion effects. The United States, Canada, and the U.K. are the three markets that still demonstrate contagion influence over countries outside its own region. The Asia-Pacific markets are more susceptible to contagion effects. Finally, it is interesting to find that Japanese market performance became more contagious toward other markets during the Asian financial crisis period.     

WTO financial services commitments: Determinants and impact on financial stability

The paper investigates the factors that have influenced WTO members to take on their chosen level of liberalization commitments in the framework of liberalization of trade in financial services and the impact of such commitments on financial sector stability. The most important factors are economic growth, current account, trends in banking sector development, policy restrictiveness, and peer-group effects. The econometric evidence suggests that more liberal commitments may be associated with greater vulnerability to currency and banking crises—most likely a short-term effect, which should be mitigated with time through increased market efficiency and better resource allocation.